400-060-0105

警惕融资融券业务的“双刃剑效应”

来源:诚信财税培训学校 时间:08-07

警惕融资融券业务的“双刃剑效应”

  继印花税改为单边征收、央企回购依次展开之后,证监会在完善证券市场交易制度方面再出重拳——此前酝酿已久的融资融券业务终于开始试点。中国证监会有关部门负责人10月5日宣布:经国务院同意,中国证监会将于近期发布证券公司融资融券业务试点工作有关问题的通知,进一步明确相关试点证券公司的实施细则。

融资融券是指以抵押金的形式从相关中介机构借取资金或证券进行市场交易。如在证券价格低位时缴纳金从中介机构借入资金买入证券,以期在证券价格走高之后卖出,在归还中介机构借入资金的同时赚取差价;在证券价格高位时缴纳金从中介机构借入证券卖出,以期在证券价格走低之后低价买回同种证券,在归还中介机构借入证券的同时赚取差价。

融资融券从本质上来说应归属于金杠杆放大交易模式,与具体的买卖多空行为并无必然。也就是说融资融券既可从事做多交易,也可从事做空交易。其多空方向取决于交易者具体的行为模式和对市场未来前景的判断。只不过在此项试点正式施行之前,我们沪深两市尚未出现符合一般市场做空模式的交易机制,因而对于广大投资者而言才会产生融资融券与市场做空等同的感觉。当然,融券业务的推广也可视为我国证券市场做空交易机制逐步完善的重要标志。除了融资融券以外,T+0交易、股指期货应属市场下一步需要不断完善的制度类型。

作为一项金融市场交易制度,就其本身而言,融资融券业务或许不带任何正面或负面价值。但是当这项业务由具体的市场交易者来执行时,市场各方,包括监管层在内就必须清楚这一金交易业务背后所隐藏的扩张风险与收益的“双刃剑效应”,并据此进行客观的分析和判断。

首先,从融资融券业务实施的微观层面来看,虽然目前尚未出台具体实施细则,但从已有的释放信息来看,试点工作将会在“风险可控”的范围内实施。比如规定的融资融券客户金比例比较高,试点证券公司还会根据自身情况提高风险控制比例,以此来控制相应的杠杆风险。但是需要看到的是即便是保持较高的金比例,也同样是杠杆交易,其风险依然不可小视。同时,如果金比例过高也会给交易者带来不必要的风险。因为交易者可能因为市场短期的剧烈波动而面临不得不平仓的窘境,从而无法实现其中期看涨或看跌的预设目标。

此外,目前对融资融券业务的官方解释中提及:从成熟市场来看,融资规模明显大于融券规模,我国不会出现大规模的卖空交易。实际上对于融资融券的实证研究都是基于较长样本期长度,通常数年到数十年不等。从长周期的角度来看,证券市场始终是伴随着经济增长而不断上行的,这不难解释从长期来看,融资规模明显会大于融券规模。

但是这不太适用于短期证券市场的随机波动性,事实上,在证券市场处于谷底,并开始上行时期,融资规模将大于融券规模;而当证券市场从高位回落时,融券规模将大于融资规模。至于何时进行融资、何时进行融券则主要取决于市场交易者对于波谷与波峰的判断。如果交易者认为市场谷底仍未到达,那么有利的选择依然是融券做空。

其次,从目前融资融券业务展开的宏观背景来看,美国国会虽然于近期通过7000亿美元的救市计划,但市场各方对该计划尚存争议,具体实施效果仍有待时间来检验。甚至考虑到经济政策的滞后效应,即使该方案立即实行并产生正面效应,也必须在数月乃至一年的时间后才能产生实质性的效果。

从以往美联储与对金融市场的拯救来看,大型金融机构的国有化并未能够有效的提振市场信心,大型金融机构的财务问题依然不断曝光。而美联储固执地认为目前经济不景气是由于信贷市场紧缩也有失周全,目前金融经济的损坏早已对实体经济造成了损坏。一旦实体经济损坏,必然会对金融经济产生更深层的负面冲击,甚至形成相互恶化的“负反馈”机制,这也不是仅仅依靠扩张信贷在短期内能够解决的问题,必须将货币政策与其他经济促进政策搭配使用才能治本。

正是由于国际经济环境的不确定性,与其对中国实体、金融经济的潜在冲击,中国证券市场依然存在低位徘徊的可能。如果加入融资融券扩大市场收益与风险的效应,那么证券市场的风险可能会被放大。

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  8. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fqi_school_news` [ RunTime:0.000630s ]
  9. SELECT `a`.*,`content` FROM `fqi_school_news` `a` LEFT JOIN `fqi_school_news_content` `b` ON `b`.`content_id`=`a`.`content_id` WHERE `school_id` = 18512 AND `a`.`content_id` = '124384' AND `news_status` = 1 AND `school_status` = 1 LIMIT 1 [ RunTime:0.000273s ]
  10. (select content_id,news_name,school_id from fqi_school_news where school_id = '18512' and content_id < '124384' and site_id <= '15' order by content_id desc limit 1) union all(select content_id,news_name,school_id from fqi_school_news where school_id = '18512' and content_id > '124384' and site_id <= '15' order by content_id asc limit 1) [ RunTime:0.000561s ]
  11. SHOW FULL COLUMNS FROM `fqi_school_course` [ RunTime:0.000684s ]
  12. SELECT * FROM `fqi_school_course` WHERE `school_id` = 18512 AND `site_id` = 15 AND `course_status` = 1 AND `school_status` = 1 ORDER BY `course_id` DESC LIMIT 4 [ RunTime:0.000299s ]
  13. SELECT * FROM `fqi_school_course` WHERE `school_id` = 18512 AND `school_status` = 1 AND `course_status` = 1 ORDER BY `course_id` DESC LIMIT 8 [ RunTime:0.000170s ]
  14. SELECT * FROM `fqi_school_news` WHERE `school_id` = 18512 ORDER BY `click` DESC,`news_id` DESC LIMIT 5 [ RunTime:0.000151s ]
  15. SELECT `content_id`,`news_name`,`a`.`school_id`,`b`.`school_name` FROM `fqi_school_news` `a` LEFT JOIN `fqi_school` `b` ON `b`.`school_id`=`a`.`school_id` WHERE `a`.`site_id` = '15' AND `b`.`school_status` = '1' AND `news_status` = 1 AND `content_id` < 124384 ORDER BY `content_id` DESC LIMIT 20 [ RunTime:0.016226s ]
0.025678s